U - Underutilization

“You don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone

They paved paradise, put up a parking lot”

Before I talk about Puerto Lopez, I want to provide a little history on a couple of other familiar locations.

People familiar with Bugsy Siegel (or anyone who saw the eponymous movie) know something of the history of Las Vegas. Because of his investment in the Flamingo Hotel and other efforts in the 1930’s and 40’s, Las Vegas went from a dusty travel stop to a travel destination. Today, the 23 major casinos generate over $6 billion per year in gross revenue.

In the early 1970’s, Cancun, Mexico had a population of 3. Because of investments through the Mexican government’s FONATUR ministry, the vacation getaway now boasts over 90 hotels and nearly 5,000,000 visitors annually.

When my wife and I first visited Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico in 1996, there was a single resort. (It offered days trips to “Old Town Huatulco”, but they were not recommended after dark.) Twenty years later, there are over 15 destination resorts in Huatulco.

What does this have to do with my little burg? I predict that the same thing will happen here.

The city of Puerto Lopez is in a basin, surrounded by hills on the north, east and south and the ocean to the west. The northern half of town is mostly undeveloped (the exception being that the most economically challenged families live there); it is a large flood plain between the two major rivers that empty into town during rainy season.

I expect that a large resort hotelier (Sandals or Marriott, e.g.) will eventually purchase and develop that northern plain. It would be a large undertaking, but I believe that proximity to the States and rising crime in the Mexican destinations will make Ecuador even more desirable in years to come.

Here is where I might make an enemy. To support a resort, Puerto Lopez needs an airfield. The best location for such would be in the Agua Blanca valley just 2 ½ miles to the north, currently home to a multi-generational indigenous community and archaeology efforts. The 3000m valley would easily handle a full weight (60t) landing for a 737-300 (2360m for wet autoland – the longest requirement). The community (and its history) would become footnotes, however.

Is my forecasting wrong? I don’t know, but I see other developments along the coast that make me think that my predictions will come true in the next 30 years.